Highly vaccinated countries thought they were over the worst. Denmark says the pandemic’s toughest month is just beginning.

And scientists accidental the surge is conscionable beginning.

As omicron drives a caller signifier of the pandemic, galore are looking to Denmark — and peculiarly the authorities institute devoted to testing, surveillance and modeling — for warnings astir what to expect.

The emerging reply — adjacent successful this highly vaccinated, affluent bluish European state — is dire. For each the defenses built implicit the past year, the microorganism is astir to sprint retired of control, and scientists present expect a akin signifier successful overmuch of the world.

“The adjacent period volition beryllium the hardest play of the pandemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, the main epidemiologist astatine Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a field of ceramic buildings on a canal.

Ever since omicron’s emergence successful November, the champion anticipation has been that the variant mightiness origin little terrible sickness than the delta mentation it is competing with, which mightiness marque this question much manageable and assistance covid-19 modulation into an endemic disease. But Denmark’s projections amusement the question truthful afloat inundating the country, that adjacent a lessened strain volition present an unprecedented blow.

Scientists caution that the cognition of omicron remains imprecise. Denmark’s microorganism modelers person galore scenarios, not conscionable one. But adjacent successful a middle-of-the-road scenario, Danish hospitals volition soon look a regular travel of patients respective times beyond what they’ve antecedently seen.

“This volition overwhelm hospitals,” Grove Krause said. “I don’t person immoderate uncertainty astir it.”

In her bureau building, wherever she works with a six-person modeling team, she tried to explicate wherefore omicron amounted to specified a setback successful the combat against the pandemic. She likened the microorganism to a flood, and described however vaccines, nether earlier variants, had acted similar 2 obstruction walls safeguarding the wellness system. One obstruction resulted from the vaccines’ quality to trim the probability of infection, keeping dispersed low. The different obstruction stemmed from the diminished likelihood of terrible sickness and death. Both barriers had immoderate holes, but together, they assured the floodwaters ne'er got excessively high.

But now, she said, the archetypal obstruction has been mostly removed. Denmark’s information shows radical with 2 doses to beryllium conscionable arsenic susceptible to omicron corruption arsenic the unvaccinated. Those who’ve been boosted person amended extortion — a motion of anticipation — but meantime immoderate 3 of 4 Danes person yet to person a 3rd dose, making the bulk of the state vulnerable.

That dynamic, coupled with a variant acold much transmissible than the 1 from past winter, means immoderate Danish idiosyncratic is present dramatically much apt to travel successful interaction with the microorganism — including the aged and the frail, arsenic Denmark’s demographics skew older, similar overmuch of the West. The h2o volition present travel done the holes successful the 2nd wall.

At her double-panel computer, Grove Krause pulled up the institute’s latest projections, which scientists were inactive tweaking earlier releasing to the nationalist connected Saturday. The scope of possibilities is wide, but the precise champion script — which is unlikely, she said — shows regular hospitalizations matching the highest of past year. In astir of the different scenarios, the numbers soar into the stratosphere.

Denmark’s hospitals person ne'er had much than 1,000 covid-19 patients astatine immoderate fixed time, a highest from past winter. But by aboriginal January, successful a mean scenario, hospitals could beryllium seeing 500 caller covid patients arriving each day. If omicron’s transmissibility winds up connected the higher end, and it proves conscionable arsenic terrible arsenic delta, with beardown quality to evade vaccines, regular admissions could scope 800.

And past determination is the substance of infections. Before this wave, Denmark had ne'er seen much than 5,000 cases successful a day. On Friday, it logged much than 11,000 caller cases. Within a week, successful a mean scenario, lawsuit numbers could deed 27,000. And into January? The institute’s estimates ascent higher still, disconnected the Y-axis.

With the surge coming into view, Denmark this period chopped the opening hours for bars and restaurants, urged radical to enactment from home, and closed schools 7 days earlier than planned for Christmas break. Grove Krause cautioned that the projections didn’t instrumentality into relationship the government’s further moves announced Friday, which included the closure of cinemas and theaters. But adjacent a afloat lockdown, she said, “won’t halt this from getting retired of control.”

Denmark’s projections are taken earnestly astir the world, due to the fact that they are informed by an all-encompassing coronavirus surveillance strategy designed specifically for moments similar this — erstwhile the quality of the microorganism is rapidly shifting.

The strategy starts with testing: Denmark swabs much radical than astir immoderate different state connected world — astatine a per capita gait 7 times that of the United States. The tests, which are escaped for some citizens and travelers, past get astatine the State Serum Institute, arsenic good arsenic a sister installation connected the different broadside of the country. Lab technicians place the positives wrong 24 hours. And by the pursuing day, they cognize which variant is liable for each case.

A information of the positives are past afloat genetically sequenced, delivering an other furniture of penetration — allowing researchers not lone to spot mutations, but to perchance recognize who infected whom.

“We’re seeing things beauteous overmuch successful existent time,” said Arieh Cohen, caput of improvement astatine the laboratory that processes trial results and conducts the archetypal variant analysis.

What that information has shown, truthful far, is that the hospitalization complaint is somewhat little for omicron than it is for delta — though due to the fact that hospitalizations lag down infections, and due to the fact that omicron infections deed lone recently, scientists accidental the results volition beryllium much meaningful successful a mates weeks.

Scientists person besides identified however omicron was seeded passim the country, archetypal from travelers inbound from Africa, and past done respective superspreader events. A just-published insubstantial from the institute and different researchers described a Christmas enactment attended by immoderate 150 people. Most were vaccinated. And yet 71 tested affirmative for omicron.

Initial omicron cases successful Denmark person been concentrated disproportionately among radical successful their 20s — an property radical that usually has mild symptoms, and whose infections mightiness beryllium missed by countries that trial less. Some scientists astatine the institute deliberation Denmark’s question is simply a week oregon 2 up of different Western countries. But others accidental galore countries could already beryllium experiencing the aforesaid pattern, with the young — who are astir apt to question and socialize — jump-starting assemblage spread.

“There’s a accidental that Denmark is capturing the dispersed that different countries are missing,” said Marc Stegger, whose squad analyzes genomic data.

Scientists present accidental granular probe lone makes consciousness if the cognition provides a mode to safeguard the state — and it has successful the past. A twelvemonth ago, when the alpha variant was taking hold, Denmark moved rapidly tightened its lockdown, and importantly blunted the wave.

The authorities hasn’t implemented a broad lockdown this time. But it has tried to beryllium responsive to the emerging science. Still, the dispersed has continued apace. For aboriginal omicron cases, Denmark tried to quarantine not conscionable adjacent contacts, but contacts of contacts; the strategy was abandoned aft 9 days, due to the fact that it became untenable.

At the State Serum Institute, galore scientists speech wearily astir the pre-omicron days arsenic if reflecting connected different era, backmost erstwhile the pandemic was manageable and understandable. In the past respective weeks alone, the investigating laboratory has hired 100 caller people. It bought 20 caller PCR machines. It started dipping into its reserve stockpile of integrative laboratory parts and warring different countries for supplies. The institute’s Christmas party, planned for past week, was canceled.

Scientists accidental they consciousness trepidation — and besides a spot of awe — astir what they are seeing: an incredibly acceptable virus, winning a turf warfare against delta. As of Monday — the astir caller time with complete, publically released information — omicron accounted for 26.8 percent of cases. A week earlier, omicron’s stock had been 4.9 percent.

“It’s moving truthful fast,” Cohen said, arsenic much swabs arrived astatine the laboratory beneath his second-floor office. He said his main interest was to support things running. He called himself a “lab guy,” and said reasoning astir the bigger representation was for the epidemiologists. But helium ventured: “I can’t assistance but person a fatalistic opinion: that we’re each going to get this.”

For the moment, the afloat consequences of omicron are inactive connected the skyline — weeks away, connected a machine screen, oregon portion of authorities warnings. In Britain, the lone state that tin lucifer Denmark’s variant surveillance, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has talked astir a “tidal wave” of incoming cases. The variant is already ascendant successful London, and Europe’s halfway for illness power says it is apt to go ascendant connected the continent arsenic a full successful January oregon February. The United States, too, is bracing for a large question and swamped hospitals arsenic aboriginal arsenic adjacent month.

But the models lone task a fewer weeks into the future, and what lies beyond that — aft the omicron question crests and dissipates — is near to the technological imagination.

At the State Serum Institute, the antheral with the imaginativeness is Anders Fomsgaard, 1 of Denmark’s best-known virologists. He’s a saxophone enthusiast with curly hair. His colleagues telephone him an thought man. And helium works successful a squat yellowish gathering wherever researchers are increasing omicron cultures.

He greeted a visitant astatine the entrance, nether neon lights shaped similar geometrical fragments, which helium explained correspond HIV.

“Another epidemic,” helium said. “Still going on, by the way.”

Perhaps, helium said, omicron’s origins are connected to HIV, arsenic the microorganism could person travel from an immunocompromised person, whose assemblage couldn’t termination disconnected the virus, and alternatively fto it turn and change. Even successful Danish hospitals, helium said, determination are radical who person had the coronavirus for 7 oregon 8 months. In Denmark, the changes are being monitored; successful astir places, they are not.

“This could beryllium 1 of the ways you make this resistant virus,” helium said.

His goal, helium said, is to assistance humanity yet get up of covid. And to that end, he’s starring each sorts of experiments. Among them is probe connected a vaccine that targets T cells. Such a vaccine wouldn’t support against infection, but its extremity would beryllium to halt sickness. The vantage would beryllium that it targets parts of the coronavirus that don’t look to mutate.

“We are each the clip responding,” helium said. “We’re behind. We are 5 steps behind.”

He thinks the adjacent period volition beryllium brutal, but aft that? It’s hard to say. Infected people, and determination volition beryllium many, could travel distant with a deepened extortion — pushing the coronavirus into thing little menacing. But helium besides said the microorganism is intolerable to eradicate fully. Maybe it could leap into rodents. Then possibly backmost into humans, re-formed. He described the coronavirus arsenic a “master mutator,” and clearly, with vaccination, humans are driving the microorganism into a corner, wherever it tin either weaken oregon change.

“It could travel retired connected the different extremity adjacent weaker,” Fomsgaard said. “But that is risky business. It mightiness deed different jackpot mutation.”