Denmark sees initial signs that dire omicron surge can be avoided

Early benchmarks from Denmark connected infections and hospitalizations are providing grounds for guarded optimism that highly vaccinated countries mightiness beryllium capable to upwind the omicron wave.

The developments, coupled with Denmark’s speedy rollout of booster shots, person raised hopes the state tin debar the dire surge for which it has been bracing.

“It’s excessively aboriginal to relax, but it’s encouraging that we are not pursuing the worst-case scenario,” said Tyra Grove Krause, the main epidemiologist astatine Denmark’s State Serum Institute.

Denmark’s detailed, nationwide programme for coronavirus investigating and investigation gives its scientists a trove of real-time information astir the pandemic. Because of that — and due to the fact that it was 1 of the archetypal countries extracurricular of Africa to witnesser omicron’s explosive imaginable — it has turned into a European bellwether for what to expect with the omicron variant.

And implicit the past week, the state has fared amended than it was expecting. After surging to record-breaking levels, the fig of regular cases has stabilized. Officials recorded 12,500 cases connected Thursday, compared to 11,000 precocious past week.

More important, hospitalizations person travel successful — truthful acold — connected the precise debased extremity of what was projected. A week ago, Denmark’s authorities subject institute said regular caller coronavirus infirmary admissions could scope betwixt 120 and 250 patients by Christmas Eve. In caller days, regular admissions person hung astir 125.

“That is rather promising,” Grove Krause said.

The aboriginal signals from Denmark bash not supply immoderate nonstop measurement connected the severity of the variant, 1 of the cardinal questions successful this signifier of the pandemic. But they way with different emerging information and studies from Britain and South Africa that suggest omicron is little apt to pb to hospitalization than the delta variant.

Scientists caution that determination are inactive galore uncertainties, and that adjacent if omicron is little apt to origin hospitalization, its accrued transmissibility means countless sicknesses and disruptions. The microorganism could besides dispersed truthful wide that it nevertheless leads to an influx astatine hospitals.

Concerns stay astir the wellness strategy successful Denmark, Grove Krause said, due to the fact that omicron infections are inactive disproportionately concentrated among the young. For now, Grove Krause said, impermanent schoolhouse closures and societal precautions person helped dilatory the dispersed — but the state could inactive spot a spike aft vacation gatherings that bring unneurotic the young and old.

Even arsenic cases person slowed, determination are different signs of omicron’s imaginable to origin chaos. Over the past 2 weeks, the fig of cases among wellness attraction workers has much than doubled. A play authorities monitoring study said determination had besides been 2 omicron outbreaks successful nursing homes.

Since omicron emerged successful November, scientists person been racing to recognize the implications and marque consciousness of a variant that is moving acold much rapidly than its predecessors.

A fewer information points emerged this week, with 1 Scottish survey suggesting the hazard of hospitalization was astir 60 percent little with omicron than delta. Another analysis, conducted by Imperial College London, said radical with omicron cases were 20 percent little apt to spell the hospital, and 40 percent little apt to beryllium hospitalized overnight. And South Africa, epicenter of the archetypal evident outbreak, has seen overmuch little hospitalization rates than successful different waves.

But it remains unclear whether trends from South Africa — wherever demographics skew younger — volition play retired successful different parts of the world. It’s besides unclear whether and to what grade omicron’s reduced severity is simply a diagnostic of the microorganism itself, oregon alternatively a motion of population-level immunity stemming from vaccinations and anterior infections.

Compared with delta, omicron is acold amended astatine evading vaccines and causing infections successful those who person already been inoculated. But Denmark’s acquisition shows that a accelerated booster rollout mightiness beryllium capable to nevertheless assistance chopped down rising corruption numbers. A squad of scientists astatine the State Serum Institute said successful a research paper this week that Pfizer-BioNTech booster shots appeared to supply a 55 percent extortion against infections, compared against cases from those who had received lone 2 doses.

Even if that level of extortion dips implicit time, boosters “can assistance america done the adjacent months,” Grove Krause said.

According to Our World successful Data, Denmark has issued the astir per capita booster shots of immoderate European Union country. Denmark said successful its latest monitoring report, released Thursday, that 36.8 percent of its colonisation had been boosted, much than treble the level from 2 weeks earlier. Overall, 77.2 percent of the country’s colonisation has received astatine slightest 2 doses.

Denmark besides cautiously tracks hospitalization rates, comparing cases for delta and omicron. Between Nov. 22 and Dec. 17, the hospitalization complaint was higher for delta cases: 1 percent, compared with 0.6 percent. The hospitalization numbers see some those who tested affirmative earlier arriving, arsenic good arsenic those who tested affirmative wrong 48 hours aft admittance.

But for now, due to the fact that the omicron cases are skewed among the young, scientists accidental an outright examination is premature.