Analysts: Afghan Taliban do little to stop Pakistan fighters

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Each twelvemonth connected Jan. 17, Shahana bakes a barroom and invites friends to her location successful the Pakistani metropolis of Peshawar. They sing blessed day for her son, adjacent airy a candle. But it’s a day without the day boy.

Her son, Asfand Khan, was 15 successful December 2014 erstwhile gunmen rampaged done his military-run nationalist schoolhouse successful Peshawar sidesplitting 150 people, astir of them students, immoderate arsenic young arsenic 5. Asfand was changeable 3 times successful the caput astatine adjacent range.

The attackers were Pakistani Taliban, who 7 years aboriginal person erstwhile again ramped up their attacks, seemingly emboldened by the instrumentality of Afghanistan’s Taliban to powerfulness successful Kabul. In the past week of December, they killed 8 Pakistani service unit successful a fractional twelve attacks and antagonistic attacks, each successful the country’s northwest. Another 2 Pakistani soldiers were killed successful an onslaught connected Taliban outposts precocious Wednesday night.

The Pakistani Taliban, known by the acronym TTP, are regrouping and reorganizing, with their enactment headquartered successful neighboring Afghanistan, according to a U.N. study from July. That is raising fears among Pakistanis similar Shahana of a instrumentality of the horrific unit the radical erstwhile inflicted.

Yet the Afghan Taliban person shown nary signs of expelling TTP leaders oregon preventing them from carrying retired attacks successful Pakistan, adjacent arsenic Pakistan leads an effort to get a reluctant satellite to prosecute with Afghanistan’s caller rulers and salvage the state from economical collapse.

It is simply a dilemma faced by each of Afghanistan’s neighbors and large powers similar China, Russia and the United States arsenic they ponder however to woody with Kabul.

Multiple militant groups recovered harmless haven successful Afghanistan during much than 4 decades of war, and immoderate of them, similar the TTP, are erstwhile battlefield allies of the Afghan Taliban.

So far, the Taliban person appeared unwilling oregon incapable to basal them out. The sole objection is the Islamic State affiliate, which is the Taliban’s force and has waged a run of unit against them and for years against Afghanistan’s number Shiite Muslims, sidesplitting hundreds successful dozens of horrific attacks targeting, schools, mosques, adjacent a maternity hospital

Washington has identified the Islamic State branch, known by the acronym IS-K, arsenic its large militant interest emanating from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s longtime state al-Qaida is not seen arsenic a beardown threat. Though U.S. subject leaders accidental determination are signs it whitethorn beryllium increasing slightly, it is struggling adjacent rudderless, with its existent leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, live but unwell, according to the July U.N. report.

Still, determination are plentifulness of different militants based successful Afghanistan, and they are raising concerns among Afghanistan’s neighbors.

China fears insurgents from its Uighur taste number who privation an autarkic Xinjiang region. Russia and Central Asian nations interest astir the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which successful caller years went connected a recruitment thrust among Afghanistan’s taste Uzbeks.

For Pakistan, it is the TTP, which stands for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The radical perpetrated immoderate of the worst violent assaults connected Pakistan, including the 2014 battle connected the subject nationalist school.

The TTP numbers anyplace from 4,000 to 10,000 fighters, according to the U.N. report. It has besides succeeded successful expanding its recruitment wrong Pakistan beyond the erstwhile tribal regions on the borderline wherever it traditionally recovered fighters, says Amir Rana, enforcement manager of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, an autarkic deliberation vessel successful the superior Islamabad.

Analysts accidental the Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to clamp down connected the TTP does not bode good for their readiness to ace down connected the galore different groups.

“The plain information is that astir of the violent groups operating successful Afghanistan, speech from IS-K, are Taliban allies,” says Michael Kugelman, lawman manager of the Asia Program astatine the Washington-based Wilson Center. “And the Taliban aren’t astir to crook their guns connected their friends, adjacent with mounting unit from determination players and the West.”

The militants’ beingness complicates Pakistan’s efforts to promote planetary dealings with the Afghan Taliban successful hopes of bringing immoderate stableness to an Afghanistan sliding into economical ruin.

Analysts accidental Pakistan’s subject has made a calculation that the losses inflicted by the TTP are preferable to undermining Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers by pressing them connected the issue. A illness would bring a flood of refugees; Pakistan mightiness beryllium their archetypal stop, but Islamabad warns that Europe and North America volition beryllium their preferred destination.

Islamabad attempted to negociate with the TTP recently, but the effort fell apart. Rana of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies said Pakistan’s argumentation of simultaneously negotiating with and attacking the TTP is “confusing” and risks emboldening like-minded insurgents successful some countries.

It besides worries its allies, helium said.

China, which is spending billions successful Pakistan, was not blessed with Islamabad’s attempts astatine talks with the TTP due to the fact that of its adjacent affiliation with Uighur separatists, said Rana. The TTP took work for a July bombing successful northwest Pakistan that killed Chinese engineers arsenic good arsenic an April bombing astatine a edifice wherever the Chinese ambassador was staying.

Pressure is mounting connected Pakistan to request the Afghan Taliban manus implicit the TTP leadership.

But Islamabad’s narration with the Taliban is complicated.

Pakistan’s almighty military, which shepherds the country’s Afghan policy, has ties to the Taliban enactment going backmost much than 40 years to an earlier invasion. Then, unneurotic with the U.S., they fought and defeated the invading erstwhile Soviet Union.

After the 2001 U.S.-led penetration of Afghanistan, Pakistan was accused by Washington and its Afghan allies of aiding the Taliban. Pakistan denied the accusations, adjacent arsenic Taliban leaders and their families lived successful Pakistan portion waging their insurgency against Kabul.

But the Taliban besides person interests divergent from Pakistan’s, peculiarly the contented of the 2 countries’ 2,500-kilometer (1,600-mile) border. Afghanistan has ne'er recognized the border, known arsenic the Durand Line, which was drawn by British assemblage administrators successful the 19th Century.

Last week, Afghan Taliban choler implicit Pakistan’s operation of a borderline obstruction threatened to crook violent. Videos shared connected societal media showed Taliban destroying rolls of barbed ligament meant for the obstruction and threatening to unfastened occurrence connected Pakistani troops.

The Taliban’s Defense Ministry issued a connection saying Pakistan had nary close to erect a borderline fence. On Wednesday Pakistan’s subject spokesperson Gen. Babar Iftikar said the obstruction was 94% done and would beryllium completed.

“The obstruction connected the Pak-Afghan borderline is needed to modulate security, borderline crossing and trade,” helium said. “The intent of this is not to disagreement the people, but to support them.”

Even if Pakistan were to inquire the Taliban to manus implicit TTP leaders, it shouldn’t expect immoderate results, says Bill Roggio, exertion of the Long War Journal which tracks planetary militancy.

“The Afghan Taliban volition not expel the TTP for the aforesaid reasons it won’t expel al-Qaida,” helium said. “Both groups played a cardinal relation successful the Afghan Taliban’s victory. They fought alongside the Afghan Taliban and sacrificed greatly implicit the past 20 years.”